Robert Pretcher, Master of bearish predictions

Robert Pretcher is, perhaps, the best-known Elliot wave expert of recent decades, especially on Wall Street, where his appearances in the media are already a classic, for better or for worse.

On your website, with your personal name, comes the description of what your investment or speculation system is, following the Principle of the Waves.

The supposed merit of Pretcher is to have developed a prediction system based on socioeconomic aspects, in such a way that it not only tries to foresee the great changes of stock market trends but also the sociological, economic and political behaviors that are linked to them, hence its passion for not only making stock market predictions, but also social issues.

His career began quite meteorically being called “the champion of predictions in the markets” by Fortune magazine.

Thus it is not difficult to understand the reason for the great success of this man in his beginnings. But that did not stop there, because other mass institutions like the New York Times called it “the best proponent in the nation of the principle of Elliot Waves”.

His books, including “The Elliot Wave Principle”, are among the best sellers in history on stock issues, being considered by many, even superior to the original work of Elliot.

This man became a legend in the 70s and 80s, with his theories about technical analysis and the waves applied to it.

His legend contributes numerous awards for various associations of the world of investment and North American trading, such as having won the “United States Trading Championship”, having won at that time a 444% return.

Likewise, Precher is the founder of Elliot Wave International, the world’s leading websites in the Elliot Theory and which are followed by thousands of investors around the world. From that platform, Pretcher forms and has trained countless investors and traders.

Among its current services include its famous subscription Newsletter and its twelve books.

Is Robert Pretcher really that good?

Well, the network says that it was very good in the 80s and early 90s.

That’s something I cannot know with certainty because at that time there were no YouTube videos with a publication date, but we are going to take for granted his reputation as a master of stock market prediction during those bullish years of the secular cycle.

However, despite the impressiveness of his work for so many years, with so many successful books sold and recognition so great that it makes him appear in the American mass media, his record of the last decades, given the predictions made in public, they leave much to be desired, to say the least.

It could be that it was good before, but the truth is that since the early 90s has been predicting the final collapse of the great upward phase of the supercycle, with constant calls during these decades to the fall of 90% of the Dow Jones, without it has been produced, as we all know.

These constant calls have occurred almost annually and you only have to search for the respective videos on the web.

However, in a mysterious way, Robert Pretcher continues to appear on FOX, CNBC, etcetera, and no one asks him about his many previous predictions.

One of the characteristics that makes this case so interesting, is the fact that they are accompanied by fairly accurate data of where the Dow Jones is going to go, whether 1,000 points, 400, 2,000, etc., and not only that, but also in temporality, giving quite accurate dates.

The latter is quite appreciated. I mean, the fact that he dares in public to give such exact data.

What happens is that practically all of these predictions have been a complete failure, in which case the unusual fact occurs that despite this, it continues to emerge year after year supported by the mass media, giving it an almost perpetual publicity which, evidently, is not based on a positive record, at least in the last 20 years. I repeat, in the 80s and early 90s, I do not know.

Let’s give some examples:

  1. June 9, 2003: “The bear market is very young. I think that in 18 months the panorama will be completely different. The optimists will no longer exist “
  2. October 13, 2004. “The Dow will fall below 1,000 and probably below 400.”
  3. October 2005: “The market will crash, with panic on Halloween”
  4. November 25, 2009: “get short on the Dow with 2: 1 leverage.
  5. June 17, 2010: “The next leg that will begin in April should make a much worse fall than that of 2007-2009”

And the list goes on and on in practically all the years before or after those.

True, in some of those years he guessed that the market was bearish, but even so, he was advising to remain bearish in March 2009, so those who followed him for little served them.

The following is one of the many videos that we could see if we frequent the news of the “mass media”.

The same is from 2010. Another classic of his predictions of the Dow in 1,000 points, but it has been 8 years and the thing was not fulfilled.

I’m not saying the Dow cannot touch 1,000 points a day if the financial system finally collapses.

That is not impossible.

But being nearly all the months of the year for decades making predictions of those events and continuing to do so with more and more people following them is worthy of study in sociology and mass psychology.

And it is not that I detract from the work that this man has done on the theory of the great waves or the great cycles, in a tone very similar to Kondratiev.

I agree with him that the stock market moves in a kind of waves or cycles, but as far as experience tells me, they are very variable and heterogeneous in behaviour, both in duration and magnitude, which makes searching for the exact moment is a fallacious task.

Another thing in which I think Robert Pretcher has a lot of merit is also in his sociological predictions of behaviours of the masses and societies, anticipating the economic effects of waves in world culture.

For example:

  • The per capita consumption of alcohol and antidepressants will increase
  • Public art will be heavier and ugly

Do I need to comment on the truth of these predictions nowadays?

Now, it also has some other pretty fun sociological predictions, like:

  • The United States space program will be closed

The latter seemed rather curious, at least. We’ll see.

In short, as we see, Robert Pretcher is a favourite character of the mass media, which, in a way at least curious, seems to have a tendency to promote those who provide more losses to their potential audiences. And this is something that happens on both sides of the Atlantic and in the Seven Seas, without exception.

And to finish, and of course, this 2018 we also have predictions from Pretcher that we are about to witness the collapse of the Dow Jones.

Well, despite all your previous failures, someday you’ll have to hit, right?

Who knows?

2018 could be his year of “good luck”.

Greetings and good trading

Original article: Robert Pretcher, gurĂº de las predicciones bajistas